20080729. After 72 months or six years, the corresponding statements from below still apply. DynaPred's predictions through 200806 are at 66 months and counting from January
2003. End 20080729 comment.
20070714. After five years (60 months 200207-200706) the corresponding statements still hold. Charts below and downloadable DOC file display the three stacked Verification charts. End
20050129. As used for the continental US, the DynaPred First Stage Model's basic graphic presentation unit was the NCDC climate division (range 3-10 per state) and CPC's basic
graphic presentation unit was a US state (48 total), a quartile state evaluation procedure was devised. Then precipitation and temperature accuracy performance on a 0-100 percentile scale was evaluated
for the total 48 x 4 = 192 quartile units in the continental US. With three predicted and observed categories, breakeven value or what NWS/CPC calls Equal Chances (EC) meaning effectively 'no prediction' is
1/3 or 0.333.
Scoring: Each state was weighted equally and divided up into 4 approximately equal area divisions. Then the respective performance evaluations were made based upon achieved three-category accuracy Above
Average, Near Average, or Below Average in each of the 4 divisions within each state. Dynamic Predictables 1st stage model predictions missed by two categories considerably less frequently than CPC, although
for brevity, that significant characteristic is not detailed on the following charts. Climate Prediction Center's nearby '90' predictions may be viewed by going to the following URL: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/90day/ with others including '30' day nearby.
Temperature and precipitation accuracy based upon this scoring method are presented on single charts beginning 200207 when DynaPred began prior month releases. These scorings will be updated from time to
time. DynaPred's 1st Stage Model predictions as scored 200207-200412 were all made in 2002. The NWS/CPC predictions were made and released mid-month prior to the scored month. In other words,
DynaPred's predictions were made in advance anywhere from 1 to 27 months and counting; NWS/CPC's were made 1 month in advance. End 20050129 comment.
Clarification: DynaPred's underlying numbers generating the 3-classifier charts are genrallyavailable to customers for further quantitative work and pattern analysis.
The three stacked charts are:
1. DynaPred's 1st Stage Model, accuracy scored as number correct out of 192.
2. NWS/CPC 30-day ahead prediction (aka "page2"), scored as number correct out of 192 also on a unity basis.
3. NWS/CPC 30-day ahead predictions ("page2") scored as number correct out of number attempted on a unity basis.