DYNAMIC PREDICTABLES

Dynamic Predictables LLC,  Columbia, MO 65205-1365, USA       dynapred@dynapred.com   t/f +1.573.815.0520                         site-specific and regional climate    

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Welcome to the Dynamic Predictables website. This page highlights climate prediction at monthly time step both regional and site specific. New with April 14, 2008 is the weekly column "Against the Grain" by Al Peterlin which joins the Pre-NASS crop report commentary  located on the What's New navigational link.      A featured chart follows, then more...

Dynamic Predictables elsewhere:
20060304.  Gregg Suhler addresses National Farmers Union Annual Convention in Denver Colorado on climate predictability and agriculture.  Downloadable PPT file is
DPatNFU20060304 (603kb) and NFU's website is  http://www.nfu.org   .
20060217.  Doug O'Brien and Gregg Suhler at American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) 2006 Annual Meeting in St Louis speak on "Nino3 Intradecadal Predictability: Regional and Site Specific Implications".  Suhler organized the Symposium "El Nino Predictability". 
http://www.aaas.org  
 

This Month's First Stage Predictions Temperature and Precipitation as released one month ahead per schedule at page bottom. Latest month ahead prediction are down-loadable or larger, under What's New or Seasonal (...yyyymm) with Press Release including narrative interpretation and state precipitation and temperature table.

temp_212_200805R1-32-c302
prec212_200805R1-16-C302
prec212_200806R1-16-C302
temp_212_200806R1-32-C302

Monthly Featured Chart: A performance evaluation of DP 1st Stage Model Accuracy as detailed under Performance . Predictions were made with data ending 200212 starting 200302 and continuing through present for 5 plus years. Breakeven is the green line at 1/3.

 NINO3 (90W-150W, 5N-5S) SST Anomaly Prediction was made with data through 199804. This chart shows the average of long term and nearby dynamics.  Other components are active contributors.  See the 5 line chart for 2002-06 in Predictions/El Nino and below as displayed on website mid-2005 through 2006. Achieved accuracy for given modes was on order of 0.02C Average Error and 0.20C for Average Absolute Error for two consecutive 15 month periods.    Observed NINO3 through 200707 something akin in accuracy to the shown immediately below 200210-200503 period. 2007 and beyond additional details was available to customers. 

NINO3AN_9804_02-06L5p3

Website last updated 20080513

... a continuing "Welcome!" to the Dynamic Predictables website                  

Commercially usable predictions: Climate knowledge that can work for you.   Contact us at +1-573-815-0520 (fax or phone) or at info@dynapred.com
What's New: See Press Release for more...

Who are we?  About ... People, Methods, InTheNews  with photos...
How good are the predictions?  1st Stage Model Results Comparison, see
Performance . . .

SALES: Sales are based upon two products. The DynaPred 1st Stage Model product provides the big picture in trends, pattern and amplitude. TheDynaPred Detailed product provides more detail in addition to the 1st Stage (or Seasonal ) product. Custom products are  available. Call for details +1-573-815-0520.

Seasonal Predictions:  Monthly forward US 344 climate divisions 12-24-36 months temperature and precipitation single-use graphic hardcopy: Call for prices.

Expert Interpretation: 4 individual telephone consultations during the 12 months for an additional $100 (soybeans, corn, wheat, cotton, or grain sorghum). Consultation provided by Al Peterlin, former Chief Meteorologist at USDA's Joint Agricultural Weather Facility (JAWF/NOAA-USDA). 
During US crop season, catch DynaPred's Pre-NASS crop condition report commentary by 0800 Central Mondays under
What's New .

Testimonial from a 1st Stage Model and consultation user:
"Best planning tool for weather a farmer can have!
Useful for fieldwork windows, especially in the spring!
Also good for variety selection - matching to the season.
I like the personal updates the best - the availability to call
to get specific questions answered as the season progresses.
Your record the past 3 years has been outstanding!!"
Belleville, Illinois December 2005

Also, FREE current prediction month (April, 200804), also archival CONUS 344 climate division under Predictions. . .Seasonal (or click directly on the red, underlined, bolded Seasonal) to view graphics directly on site without downloading a file. Other examples (NINO3, Georgia, new 20030417 Oregon , new 20070213 Florida) are also under Predictions or click the underlined, bolded link to go directly to graphics.  Descriptive text for graphics is then available via the navigation bar above the graphics.  Contact us for commercially available product details: months farther ahead, quantified predictions that underlay the graphics, more Detailed predictions, locations available. . .

Dynamic Predictables:  The Future of Climate

OUR MISSION

Our mission is to improve foresight capability of decision makers by providing usable predictions
far enough in advance to make a positive difference.

COMPANY PROFILE

Dynamic Predictables is a Limited Liability Company registered in the State of Missouri in 1998. Founding members are Douglas P. O'Brien and Gregg Suhler.  Our first area of business is making climate predictions. We are also integrating climate predictions with agriculture, energy, and other related businesses and sciences.

At DynaPred, our services to you are prepared by people experienced and seasoned in geophysics, agro-meteorology, and the agricultural sciences, among others.

RELEASES:  Under What's New on Navigation Bar:  Latest (200805) downloadable GIF files.  Also under Predictions. . . Seasonal with accompanying text.    Next Scheduled Release showing June 2008 is scheduled Tuesday May 13, 2008 at 3PM CDT (2000 GMT).

DynaPred Public Release Schedule for CY 2008 subject to change
  
Product                (yyyymm)  Release  Time            Date

Seasonal(1stStage)     200801

1500CST (2100UT)   20071218

Seasonal(1stStage)     200802

1500CST (2100UT)   20080115

Seasonal(1st Stage)    200803

1500CST (2100UT)   20080219

Seasonal(1st Stage)    200804

1500CDT (2000UT)   20080318

Seasonal(1st Stage)    200805

1500CDT (2000UT)   20080415

Seasonal(1st Stage)    200806

1500CDT (2000UT)   20080513

Seasonal(1st Stage)    200807

1500CDT (2000UT)   20080617

Seasonal(1st Stage)    200808

1500CDT (2000UT)   20080715

Seasonal(1st Stage)    200809

1500CDT (2000UT)   20080819

Seasonal(1st Stage)    200810

1500CDT (2000UT)   20080916

Seasonal(1st Stage)    200811

1500CDT (2000UT)   20081014

Seasonal(1st Stage)    200812

 1500CST (2100UT)  20081118

Seasonal(1st Stage)    200901

1500CST (2100UT)   20081215

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CONTACT:  Gregg Suhler

Telephone:     +1(573) 815-0520  e-mail suhlerg@dynapred.com

Business address: P. O. Box 1365, Columbia, Missouri (MO) 65205-1365   USA

Electronic mail
General Information:
info@dynapred.com
Customer Support:
support@dynapred.com

website last updated May 13, 2008                   
 

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