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20080701. An occasional comment by Al Peterlin.
Predictables Perspective on June 2008 Weather
Commodity prices, gold to copper, and wheat to corn to soybeans, continue to stress consumers and dominate the popular press.
Weather has been a spotty culprit, but the weather impact remains slow to develop and difficult to fully assess.
Temperatures have
been generally benign for the month without terrible heat, although there have been several summer like days, mostly from the Middle Atlantic States to New England. However, for the most part, temperatures were warmest in the
Southern Plains and coolest from the Pacific Northwest to the Northern Plains. Otherwise, readings have been quite close to seasonal levels. Unfortunately, after a cool spring, late planting and excess moisture, a bit more heat
would have been beneficial. Just goes to show, in 2008, normal is not good enough.
Precipitation is
really the story of the moment. While the southern half of the nation has been dry, especially California and portions of the Southeast, the northern half of the nation, from western Montana to eastern Oklahoma and eastward
across the Middle Mississippi Valley through the Ohio Valley, has been wet adding insult to injury and making people think of 1993. Still, the hardest hit areas were centered on Iowa and northern Missouri and across a
narrow belt through central Illinois, central Indiana and southern Ohio.
The high water
inundated lowland rivers and streams, broke through levees into populated areas and flooded fields that were already saturated. In many cases, planting and replanting was interrupted, emerging plants were hurt, stunted at best.
Still, the best estimates of weather impact will come from acreage losses rather than the crop condition report. Crops were already slow to develop and the range of crop development difficult to assess prior to the wet weather.
Early, off the cuff, looks may not be the best gage of production this year. Finally, to much water impacts are rarely as large as drought impacts. This years crop condition reports, even after the floods, resemble 1996, not
1993.
Many say all
politics is local. Many will say that understanding the state of the corn and bean crop this year will mean a complex process of analyzing local pieces and building carefully upon that. Mid July will not define the state of the
corn crop this year. Mid July to mid August will. And, the crop will be vulnerable to even short periods of heat, shallow roots. Weeds will be everywhere, nitrogen won't. Insects will be spotty and resurgent and every type of
mold, mildew, and fungus on the books could be ready to explode.
Then there are
beans. Again, the window of development is wide. Acres will be difficult to determine. Short season beans may be a substitute for corn in areas, and August and September weather may be the weather driver this year. The bugs,
pathogens and weeds will be of concern here also. For now, rust is not an issue, but with a late crop and potential for some tropical storm activity, it'll have to be watched closely.
It's good June is entering the history books. July looms large.
Al Peterlin 20080701
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