Dynamic Predictables LLC,   Columbia, MO 65205-1365, USA       dynapred@dynapred.com   tele +1.573.815.0520                        multi-year, site-specific and regional climate prediction                 

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Production Potential 2012

DynaPred's ATLAS 1-5 year product line is found on its own ATLAS page or on navigation bars.  Downloadable Atlas PDFs (internal link) or at bottom of the ATLAS page.

#NOTE: 20141023. DynaPred website is under revision with completion expected 20141120.  Some components are transitioned out and some transitioning onto site.   

Welcome to the Dynamic Predictables website. This DP Home page introduces key Dynamic Predictables features and products then provides further links highlighting our climate prediction at monthly time step both regional and site specific.  A few noted presentations with linkages are mentioned, thumbnail maps of the ATLAS  month ahead US mainland prediction follows for the 2012 drought year, a monthly featured chart, then more...

20120214.  Atlas 1st Stage Model Predictions public release is under reconsideration.  The last released month was 201112.  Comments are invited through info@dynapred.com .  Previous predictions charts such as Nino3 and Oregon coastal climate division 01 precipitation continue to be updated as does monthly NCDC-CIRS climate division data under Support.  20120517 Only occasional releases, as below, will be made until further notice.

20120601.  Production Potential 2012, a special Commentary by Al Peterlin on CONUS Agricultural Production prospects in June, July, August 2012.  For larger GIF charts click June, July, August.  Underlying precipitation dataset used for DynaPred's Atlas First Stage Predictions  is the Texas A&M University FNEP dataset on the NCDC-CIRS climate division basis.  20130403.  Download 2012fnepPredCompareNCDC-CIRSobserved in MSWord2003 .

Dynamic Predictables elsewhere:
20100215.  "A Decade of Change?", by Professor Anthony R Lupo on http://www.icecap.us used DynaPred research and 2**N forced system response to contrast the past decade as seen through a long term equilibrium approach with the nonequilibrium dynamics approach DynaPred uses.  A binary subharmonic time series linear combination of 8, 64, 256 years is contrasted with the UK(CRU-HADLEY),NOAA/NCDC,NASA/GISS Global Temperature Series charts from mid, late 1800s through late 2000s.  See for yourself on the icecap website, search for Lupo, or download the corresponding file here.  Natural dynamics, anyone?

20081212.  Business Profile in Columbia Business Times on October 17, 2008, entitled (click on) "Dynamic Principles"

20071204.  Gregg Suhler talk at Japan government agency METI/RIETI Brown Bag Lunch
 "Climate Change: Implications, Consequences and Predictability - Plus Politics"
Handouts [PDF:232KB]      http://www.rieti.go.jp/en/events/bbl/07120401.pdf  
Transcript  http://www.rieti.go.jp/en/events/bbl/07120401.html talk with open discussion

20060304.  Gregg Suhler addresses National Farmers Union Annual Convention in Denver Colorado on climate predictability and agriculture.  Downloadable PPT file is DPatNFU20060304 (603kb) and NFU's website is  http://www.nfu.org .

20060217.  Doug O'Brien and Gregg Suhler at American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) 2006 Annual Meeting in St Louis speak on "Nino3 Intradecadal Predictability: Regional and Site Specific Implications".  Suhler organized the Symposium "El Nino Predictability" searchable  http://www.aaas.org See comment, link to abbreviated PPT What's New 20100215.

20120517.  Featured Active Prediction Chart.  Shown below is the Nino3 Anomaly Prediction shown under Predictions/El Nino with Input Data End 200304 (replacing 199804 on 20130913), as presented initially at AASC2003 Annual Meeting and posted summer 2003 on this website.  Initial prediction showed out through CY 2009.  The same prediction with forward years through 2013 shows below that 23 months correlation of 0.77 emerges from the approximately four years modulation that resulted in a lowering of Nino3 anomalies of approximately 0.35 C from that previously predicted that had over 97 months (199805-200605) achieved 0.65 correlation.  Observations are updated through 201309 and are generally updated around 10th of following month.

Website last updated 20141023

NINO3_0304-1409L2-1512corl4

20130915.Last NOAA/NWS/CPC data point shown: 201308.  Note interval 200605-1006 negative correlation may be seen as due to peak splitting with observed central peak lower than predicted and smaller side peaks increasing higher while occurring at/near dates of predicted minor peaks.  Also note overall average temperature for interval decreased by 0.35-0.50C and appears to be persisting with subsequent lower observed than predicted.  Correlation since 201006 has been in vicinity of 0.75 which is higher than the 0.65 correlation for first eight years.

Monthly Featured Chart:  Retirement:  DynaPred's first publicly shown chart as presented at AASC1998 Annual Meeting in Duluth, Minnesota, was website posted and subsequently  presented and evaluated through 140 months (11.67 years) from 199805-200912.  As noted a computation error was discovered and corrected in 2003 after 5 years.  Please see the 2003 computation-error corrected predictions (dataend 199804 and 200304) out through 201213.   Note:
1.
The Observed Anomaly Standard Deviation over the 140 months was 0.71 C. AvAbsErr was 0.76C.
2.  First 4 years were good, second four years not-so-good, last 3.67 years were good.
3.  Beginning with year 5 although amplitudes were often problematic, the max/min turning percentage topped 75%.

Nino3AN_9805-0912L3Final

NINO3 (90W-150W, 5N-5S) SST Anomaly Prediction was made with data through 199804.  This chart shows the average of long term and nearby dynamics.   Other components are active contributors.  See the 5 line chart for 2002-06 in Predictions/El Nino  and below as displayed on website mid-2005 through 2006.  Achieved accuracy for given modes was on order of 0.02C Average Error and 0.20C Average Absolute Error for two consecutive 15 month periods.    Observed NINO3 through 200707 showed similar accuracy to the shown immediately below 200210-200503 period.  2007 and beyond additional details was available to customers. 

NINO3AN_9804_02-06L5p3

... a continuing "Welcome!" to the Dynamic Predictables website                  

Commercially usable predictions:  Climate knowledge that can work for you.   
Contact us at +1-573-815-0520 (telephone) or at
info@dynapred.com
What's New:    See Press Release for more...

Who are we?  About ... People, Methods, InTheNews  with photos...
How good are the predictions?  1st Stage Model Results Comparison, see
Performance . . .

PRODUCT SALES:  Sales are based upon two prediction products. The DynaPred Atlas 1st Stage Model provides the big picture in trends, pattern and amplitude. The DynaPred Atlas Detailed Model product provides additional detail to that of the 1st Stage (or Seasonal ) product.  Both are available spatially from site-specific to regional aggregations. Custom products are available to meet your needs. 
Call for details +1-573-815-0520.

Seasonal Predictions:  Monthly forward US 344 climate divisions 12-24-36 months temperature and precipitation single-use graphic hardcopy:  Call for prices.

Expert Interpretation:  4 individual telephone consultations during the 12 months for an  additional $100 (soybeans, corn, wheat, cotton, or grain sorghum). Consultation provided by Al Peterlin, former Chief Meteorologist at USDA's Joint Agricultural Weather Facility (JAWF/NOAA-USDA). 
During US crop season, catch DynaPred's Pre-NASS crop condition report commentary by 0800 Central Mondays under
What's New .

Testimonial from a 1st Stage Model and consultation user:
"Best planning tool for weather a farmer can have!
Useful for fieldwork windows, especially in the spring!
Also good for variety selection - matching to the season.
I like the personal updates the best - the availability to call
to get specific questions answered as the season progresses.
Your record the past 3 years has been outstanding!!"
Belleville, Illinois December 2005

Testimony from May 2009
"Unmatched accuracy in intermediate and long range
weather forecasting since we started in 2003. 
Useful in our operation's planning and production for grains
and then for planning marketing and purchases.  On the money!"

FREE Predictions:  DynaPred's Atlas product 1st Stage aka Seasonal current (July 201107, August 201108) graphs are 10-17 inches below top of this DP Home page).  The What's New tabbed page has these 1st Stage downloadable files and Press Release beginning 12 inches down from page top. Left click navigational tabs or red underlined Seasonal link  to view graphics directly on site without downloading a file. Other examples (NINO3, Georgia in Archives, new 20030417 Oregon , new 20070213 Florida, new 20090317 site-specific precipitation Sherwood, North Dakota USA) are also under Predictions or click the underlined, bolded link to go directly to graphics.  Descriptive text is then available via the navigation bar above the graphics.  Contact us for commercially available product details: months farther ahead, quantified predictions that underlay the graphics, more Detailed predictions, locations available. . . 

Dynamic Predictables:  The Future of Climate

OUR MISSION

Our mission is to improve foresight capability of decision makers by providing usable predictions
far enough in advance to make a positive difference.

COMPANY PROFILE

Dynamic Predictables is a Limited Liability Company registered in the State of Missouri in 1998.  Founding members are Douglas P. O'Brien and Gregg Suhler.  Our first area of business is making climate predictions. We are also integrating climate predictions with agriculture, energy, and other related businesses and sciences.

At DynaPred, our services to you are prepared by people experienced and seasoned in geophysics, agro-meteorology, and the agricultural sciences, among others.

RELEASES:  DynaPred has for time being suspended the month prior releases of Atlas 1st Stage Prediction product for Continental US Under What's New on Navigation Bar: Last month released (201112) downloadable GIF files.  Also under Predictions. . . Seasonal with accompanying text.    January 2012 and subsequent months' predictions have not been released for public use.

CONTACTGregg Suhler

Telephone:     +1(573) 815-0520  e-mail  suhlerg@dynapred.com

Business address: P. O. Box 1365, Columbia, Missouri (MO) 65205-1365    USA

Electronic mail
General Information:
info@dynapred.com
Customer Support:
support@dynapred.com 

website last updated, October 23,  2014                    
 

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