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	Dynamic Predictables LLC, Columbia, MO 65205-1365, USA dynapred@dynapred.com tele +1.573.815.0520 multi-year, site-specific and regional climate prediction

DynaPred's ATLAS 1-5 year product line is introduced on its own ATLAS page or on navigation bars. Downloadable Atlas PDFs (internal link) or at bottom of the ATLAS page.

Welcome to the Dynamic Predictables website. This DP Home page introduces key Dynamic Predictables features and products then provides further links highlighting our climate prediction at monthly time step both regional and site specific. Al Peterlin's Pre-USDA/NASS crop report commentary is located on the What's New navigational link. A few noted presentations with linkages are mentioned, thumbnail maps of the ATLAS month ahead US mainland prediction follows, a monthly featured chart, then more...

20120214. Atlas 1st Stage Model Predictions public release is under reconsideration. The last released month was 201112. Comments are invited through info@dynapred.com . Previous predictions charts such as Nino3 and Oregon coastal climate division 01 precipitation continue to be updated as does monthly NCDC-CIRS climate division data under Support.

Dynamic Predictables elsewhere:
20100215. "A Decade of Change?", by Professor Anthony R Lupo on http://www.icecap.us used DynaPred research and 2**N forced system response to contrast the past decade as seen through a long term equilibrium approach with the nonequilibrium dynamics approach DynaPred uses. A binary subharmonic time series linear combination of 8, 64, 256 years is contrasted with the UK(CRU-HADLEY),NOAA/NCDC,NASA/GISS Global Temperature Series charts from mid, late 1800s through late 2000s. See for yourself on the icecap website, search for Lupo, or download the corresponding file here. Natural dynamics, anyone?

20081212. Business Profile in Columbia Business Times on October 17, 2008, entitled (click on) "Dynamic Principles"

20071204. Gregg Suhler talk at Japan government agency METI/RIETI Brown Bag Lunch
"Climate Change: Implications, Consequences and Predictability - Plus Politics"
Handouts [PDF:232KB] http://www.rieti.go.jp/en/events/bbl/07120401.pdf
Transcript http://www.rieti.go.jp/en/events/bbl/07120401.html talk with open discussion

20060304. Gregg Suhler addresses National Farmers Union Annual Convention in Denver Colorado on climate predictability and agriculture. Downloadable PPT file is DPatNFU20060304 (603kb) and NFU's website is http://www.nfu.org .

20060217. Doug O'Brien and Gregg Suhler at American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) 2006 Annual Meeting in St Louis speak on "Nino3 Intradecadal Predictability: Regional and Site Specific Implications". Suhler organized the Symposium "El Nino Predictability" searchable http://www.aaas.org See comment, link to abbreviated PPT What's New 20100215.

20120517. The month-ahead First Stage Predictions Temperature and Precipitation as immediately below have been suspended from public release for the time being. These have been listed under What's New or Seasonal (...yyyymm) with Press Release including narrative interpretation and state precipitation and temperature table.

201112 temperatures predict Above Average west of a line from Chicago to New Orleans. Then temps predict Near Average for about a 400 mile band eastward. Appalachian Mountains east predict Below Average.
201112 precipitation predicts in three bands. The northern Great Plains predicts Below Average. Then a spotty wet band predicts from the central West angling ENE through a wet New England. Then a dry band from border Southwest bulging into central Great Plains then tending average to spotty dry across the Southeast.

201111 temperatures predict Above Average west of the Mississippi River. Atlantic Coastal states predict Below Average. Remainder predicts Near Average.
November 2011 precipitation predicts wet only a few spots in Great Basin with West otherwise Average. High Average to Above Average precipitation predicts for New England. Dryness predicts to continue in the Great Plains, Rocky Mountains, and across the South.

20120517. Featured Active Prediction Chart. Shown below is the Nino3 Anomaly Prediction shown under Predictions/El Nino with Input Data End 199804, as presented initially at AASC2003 Annual Meeting and posted summer 2003 on this website. Initial prediction showed out through CY 2009. The same prediction with forward years through 2013 shows below that 23 months correlation of 0.77 emerges from the approximately four years modulation that resulted in a lowering of Nino3 anomalies of approximately 0.35 C from that previously predicted that had over 97 months (199805-200605) achieved 0.65 correlation.

Monthly Featured Chart: Retirement: DynaPred's first publicly shown chart as presented at AASC1998 Annual Meeting in Duluth, Minnesota, was website posted and subsequently presented and evaluated through 140 months (11.67 years) from 199805-200912. As noted a computation error was discovered and corrected in 2003 after 5 years. Please see the 2003 computation-error corrected predictions (dataend 199804 and 200304) out through 201213. Note:
1. The Observed Anomaly Standard Deviation over the 140 months was 0.71 C. AvAbsErr was 0.76C.
2. First 4 years were good, second four years not-so-good, last 3.67 years were good.
3. Beginning with year 5 although amplitudes were often problematic, the max/min turning percentage topped 75%.

NINO3 (90W-150W, 5N-5S) SST Anomaly Prediction was made with data through 199804. This chart shows the average of long term and nearby dynamics. Other components are active contributors. See the 5 line chart for 2002-06 in Predictions/El Nino and below as displayed on website mid-2005 through 2006. Achieved accuracy for given modes was on order of 0.02C Average Error and 0.20C Average Absolute Error for two consecutive 15 month periods. Observed NINO3 through 200707 showed similar accuracy to the shown immediately below 200210-200503 period. 2007 and beyond additional details was available to customers.


	Website last updated 20120522

... a continuing "Welcome!" to the Dynamic Predictables website

Commercially usable predictions: Climate knowledge that can work for you.
Contact us at +1-573-815-0520 (fax or phone) or at info@dynapred.com
What's New: See Press Release for more...

Who are we? About ... People, Methods, InTheNews with photos...
How good are the predictions? 1st Stage Model Results Comparison, see Performance . . .

PRODUCT SALES: Sales are based upon two prediction products. The DynaPred Atlas 1st Stage Model provides the big picture in trends, pattern and amplitude. The DynaPred Atlas Detailed Model product provides additional detail to that of the 1st Stage (or Seasonal ) product. Both are available spatially from site-specific to regional aggregations. Custom products are available to meet your needs.
Call for details +1-573-815-0520.

Seasonal Predictions: Monthly forward US 344 climate divisions 12-24-36 months temperature and precipitation single-use graphic hardcopy: Call for prices.

Expert Interpretation: 4 individual telephone consultations during the 12 months for an additional $100 (soybeans, corn, wheat, cotton, or grain sorghum). Consultation provided by Al Peterlin, former Chief Meteorologist at USDA's Joint Agricultural Weather Facility (JAWF/NOAA-USDA).
During US crop season, catch DynaPred's Pre-NASS crop condition report commentary by 0800 Central Mondays under What's New .

Testimonial from a 1st Stage Model and consultation user:
"Best planning tool for weather a farmer can have!
Useful for fieldwork windows, especially in the spring!
Also good for variety selection - matching to the season.
I like the personal updates the best - the availability to call
to get specific questions answered as the season progresses.
Your record the past 3 years has been outstanding!!"
Belleville, Illinois December 2005

Testimony from May 2009
"Unmatched accuracy in intermediate and long range
weather forecasting since we started in 2003.
Useful in our operation's planning and production for grains
and then for planning marketing and purchases. On the money!"

FREE Predictions: DynaPred's Atlas product 1st Stage aka Seasonal current (July 201107, August 201108) graphs are 10-17 inches below top of this DP Home page). The What's New tabbed page has these 1st Stage downloadable files and Press Release beginning 12 inches down from page top. Left click navigational tabs or red underlined Seasonal link to view graphics directly on site without downloading a file. Other examples (NINO3, Georgia in Archives , new 20030417 Oregon , new 20070213 Florida, new 20090317 site-specific precipitation Sherwood, North Dakota USA) are also under Predictions or click the underlined, bolded link to go directly to graphics. Descriptive text is then available via the navigation bar above the graphics. Contact us for commercially available product details: months farther ahead, quantified predictions that underlay the graphics, more Detailed predictions, locations available. . .

Dynamic Predictables: The Future of Climate

OUR MISSION

Our mission is to improve foresight capability of decision makers by providing usable predictions
far enough in advance to make a positive difference.

COMPANY PROFILE

Dynamic Predictables is a Limited Liability Company registered in the State of Missouri in 1998. Founding members are Douglas P. O'Brien and Gregg Suhler. Our first area of business is making climate predictions. We are also integrating climate predictions with agriculture, energy, and other related businesses and sciences.

At DynaPred, our services to you are prepared by people experienced and seasoned in geophysics, agro-meteorology, and the agricultural sciences, among others.

RELEASES: DynaPred has for time being suspended the month prior releases of Atlas 1st Stage Prediction product for Continental US. Under What's New on Navigation Bar: Last month released (201112) downloadable GIF files. Also under Predictions. . . Seasonal with accompanying text. January 2012 and subsequent months' predictions have not been released for public use.

DynaPred Atlas First Stage (Seasonal) Prediction Public Release Schedule for CY 2011 subject to change
   Product                (yyyymm)   Release Time            Date

Seasonal(1stStage)      201101

1500CST (2100UT)   20101214

Seasonal(1stStage)      201102

1500CST (2100UT)   20110118

Seasonal(1st Stage)     201103

1500CST (2100UT)   20110215

Seasonal(1st Stage)     201104

1500CDT (2000UT)   20110315

Seasonal(1st Stage)     201105

1500CDT (2000UT)   20110419

Seasonal(1st Stage)     201106

1500CDT (2000UT)   20110517

Seasonal(1st Stage)     201107

1500CDT (2000UT)   20110614

Seasonal(1st Stage)     201108

1500CDT (2000UT)   20110719

Seasonal(1st Stage)     201109

1500CDT (2000UT)   20110816

Seasonal(1st Stage)     201110

1500CDT (2000UT)   20110913

Seasonal(1st Stage)     201111

1500CDT (2000UT)   20111018

Seasonal(1st Stage)     201112

1500CST (2100UT)   20111115

Seasonal(1st Stage)     201201

1500CST (2100UT)   20111213

CONTACT: Gregg Suhler

Telephone: +1(573) 815-0520 e-mail suhlerg@dynapred.com

Business address: P. O. Box 1365, Columbia, Missouri (MO) 65205-1365 USA

Electronic mail
General Information: info@dynapred.com
Customer Support: support@dynapred.com

website last updated May 22, 2012


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